Ferguson on the Hot Seat

Well, here we are then fellow Leafers. Andrew Raycroft is our new starting goaltender. To be honest, I'm still not sure if that's good or not. We all know that Belfour was done. His wonky back alone spelled his doom, although his flagging interest in a season going down the tubes was evident by the beginning of February. Luongo was always going to be a difficult acquisition because the Leafs had so little to offer in terms of a trade. That left us with a collection of once-proud cast-off goalies such as Evgeni Nabokov and J.S. Giguere. Well, Nabokov is 31, Giguere is 29. Certainly neither is over the hill, but Raycroft just turned 26. It should come as no surprise that the Leafs are making a concerted effort to get younger, and well they should.

The question remains, however, is Raycroft the answer? Trading Tukka Rask, in my mind, is no big deal. I think Justin Pogge will be a better goalie down the line anyways. So the trade is OK. There can be no denying that Raycroft was spectacular for the Bruins in '03-'04, and he was justly rewarded with the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year. That year the Bruins were 2nd in the East (tied for 2nd overall in the NHL) with 104 points. They had a very good team. Last year, well, last year the Bruins were awful. They struggled to adjust to the new rules, struggled to create chemistry with a patchwork roster, and then they traded Joe Thorton for three slightly-better-than-average players. So Raycroft now is suddenly faced with a whole slew of power plays, not to mention fairly sloppy defensive work in front of him. And it's his 2nd full season. He's 25. And he stunk. Just like the rest of the team, he stunk. Then Tim Thomas steps in, a 31 year old journeyman with, until last season, 220 minutes of NHL experience. He plays very well, Bergeron and Boyes are starting to click, Sturm is scoring, the team realizes it has nothing to lose and they play well. And Thomas was only 12-13-11, with a 2.77 GAA and a .917 SV%. That's good. Nothing to pin the hopes of a city on, but good. Thomas has now started 38 career NHL games, and is now 32. How much longer before Hanu Toivonen replaces him anyways? At this point, it matters not.

So back to Raycroft and the Maple Leafs. Its clear that Raycroft has ability. The Bruins were hardly a defensive juggernaut in his rookie year. He has started 100 games at the NHL level. I would concede that 23 of his 28 starts last year were terrible (he had 5 starts allowing 2 or fewer goals). He only lost 18 games all year in '03-'04, so let's even say that of the 55 starts he made that season, 20 were bad (sometimes you play poorly and win, sometimes you play great and lose). The 5 starts he made in '02-'03 were good. So 41 of his 100 career starts we can say were bad. Basic math tells us then that approximately 59% of his total career starts are at average or better. I'd say that's encouraging, considering he's only 25, and has now had a taste of what its like to be on top, and what its like to be on the bottom. He's played for a storied franchise with rabid fans, and knows what its like to be celebrated and skewered by the media. There aren't too many young goalies who have that type of career experience at that age.

Enter the Maple Leafs. With Raycroft now part of the stable, they have 3 young goalies in various tages of their development: Raycroft, the early success story trying to justify his ROY award; Mikael Tellqvist, the patient back-up who faltered when given the starting spot; and Justin Pogge, by all accounts an exceptional goaltender at every level he has played so far. Pogge surely is still a year or two away from competing even for a back-up role, but stranger things have happened. Tellqvist is a very capable back-up, and maybe that's all he'll ever be. Raycroft has shown the ability to be a No. 1 goalie in a strong hockey market.

So what does all this mean?

Well, there are no guarantees. Not in life, and certainly not in pro sports. There is no guarantee that Raycroft can get back to his winning ways, just as there is no guarantee that Tukka Rask will ever be any better than Raycroft thimself, or Tellqvist for that matter. There's no guarantee that Giguere or Nabokov will be great on whatever team they end up playing for. The only thing we know for sure is that Raycroft is young and talented, already has a wide range of playing experience, and is surely ready to prove himself once again.

At the end of the day, the Leafs' biggest worry is not goaltending, but overall defensive play. Forwards need to be far more responsible in their own end, and the defence corps has to be upgraded. These things are not in question. They are cold, hard facts.

I'm willing to give Ferguson the benefit of the doubt on this one, to see how it plays out.

And sweet jesus on toast, I hope it works.